Valuation of Uncertain Medical Developments
In personal injury claims, judges take future medical prognoses into account by discounting favorable and unfavorable chances. This concerns uncertainties such as recovery chances or deterioration of conditions. Article 6:98 of the Dutch Civil Code requires a realistic estimate, taking into account medical expert opinions and statistics.
In practice, the judge compares the hypothetical recovery without the accident to the actual condition. In the case of cancer following an accident, for example, it is weighed whether the disease arose independently. The Supreme Court ruling of 12 July 2013 (ECLI:NL:HR:2013:CA2785) emphasizes that judges must apply probabilistic methods.
Calculation Methods
Often percentages are used: a 60% chance of full recovery reduces the damage claim by 40%. Experts provide tables with survival chances. Victims must prove that the accident affected the prognosis. Insurers advocate for conservative estimates to prevent overcompensation.
This approach ensures fairness, but leads to discussions about subjective estimates. Judges test against reasonableness and fairness under Article 6:2 of the Dutch Civil Code.