What does discounting good and bad chances mean in The Hague?
In The Hague, discounting good and bad chances plays a key role in personal injury calculations. This principle takes account of future uncertainties for the victim. Judges and insurers in The Hague weigh what realistically would have happened without the accident, especially at the District Court of The Hague (Prins Clauslaan 60).
In loss of earning capacity damage, this is crucial: would the victim have become unemployed without the accident, or would they have been promoted with higher income?
Legal framework in The Hague
The basis lies in Article 6:98 DCC, which requires that damage be estimated appropriately to its nature. Article 6:97 DCC also applies, for past and future loss of profits.
The Supreme Court confirmed this in judgments such as HR 5 March 2004 (ECLI:NL:HR:2004:AM9069), in which judges must ex officio investigate good/bad chances. Local cases at the District Court of The Hague strictly follow this line.
Application to earning capacity in The Hague
In income damage, the hypothetical (without accident) and actual situation are compared. The difference is the damage, corrected for chances.
Bad chances: risks even without the accident
Bad chances reduce the compensation, because loss of income might have occurred anyway. Examples:
- Prior health complaints: A back problem that would have caused incapacity for work?
- Economic factors: Work in a shrinking Hague sector such as government or port?
- Age effects: Close to retirement age?
- Unstable jobs: Temporary contracts without prospects?
This results in a reduction in the payment.
Good chances: missed opportunities due to the accident
Good chances increase the damage, for missed positive developments. Examples:
- Promotion: On track for a higher position with a Hague employer?
- Income increase: Expected salary raises?
- Training: Course for better paid work in the region?
- Self-employed: Plan for own business in The Hague with higher earnings?
This leads to higher compensation.
Burden of proof and probability at the District Court of The Hague
Victims prove good chances; insurers prove bad chances. Judges apply reasonable probability, with percentages from 10-90% depending on the facts.
For advice: visit the Juridisch Loket The Hague, Lutherse Burgwal 10 or file at the District Court of The Hague.
| Type of chance | Effect | Burden of proof | Examples The Hague |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bad chance | Reduction | Insurer | Health issues, sector shrinkage, retirement, temporary jobs |
| Good chance | Increase | Victim | Promotion, salary increase, retraining, startup |
| Neutral | No adjustment | - | Permanent job without risks |